This Isn’t Just Another Crash

Story originally published here.

Like addicts who cannot control their cravings, financial analysts cannot stop themselves from seeking some analog situation in the past which will clarify the swirling chaos in their crystal balls.

So we’ve been swamped with charts overlaying recent stock market action over 1929, 1987,2000 and 2008 — though the closest analogy is actually the Oil Shock of 1973, an exogenous shock to a weakening, fragile economy.

But the reality is there is no analogous situation in the past to the present, and so all the predictions based on past performance will be misleading. The chartists and analysts claim that all markets act on the same patterns, which are reflections of human nature, and so seeking correlations of volatility and valuation that “worked” in the past will work in 2020.

Does anyone really believe the correlations of the past decade or two are high-probability predictors of the future as the entire brittle construct of fictional capital and extremes of globalization and financialization all unravel at once?

Here are a few of the many consequential differences between all previous recessions and the current situation.

Former CIA and Pentagon Advisor: “Millions of Americans are in DANGER”

America could be facing a catastrophe that will catch most people by surprise…
 
And no, it’s not the coronavirus.
 
But this historical event will change America forever.
 
Most Americans have no idea what’s about to hit them in the coming days.
 
Which is why I’m urging Americans to take these 5 steps right now.