The Best Ways to Play Gold’s Historic Move

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Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 8.4%.

The dollar is down 4.4%.

But gold is actually up 30%.

And the gold miners index (GDX) is up 45%.

In my humble opinion, this trend is just getting started. Let’s start with gold…

Gold’s rally past $2,000 per ounce earlier this month was historic for a couple reasons.

First, it was an all-time high above a key level the precious metal has never seen before.

And second, it means people all over the world are starting to see gold as a superior store of value to their local fiat (government) currencies.

I think it’s only a matter of months before we get to $2,500 per ounce of gold.

That’s because the United States and other central banks around the world are certainly going to have to print and spend trillions of their native fiat currencies to combat coronavirus and the hundreds of millions unemployed.

All the while, gold is limited in supply. Central bankers can’t arbitrarily decide to create more gold out of thin air. Gold is a precious metal that can’t be recreated by combining any number of elements from the periodic table…

In fact, it would take about 60 years to double the supply of gold at its current mining production rate.

Meanwhile, at its current creation rate, the United States is on pace to double the amount of dollars in the system (M2 money supply) in about 5 years.

Put another way, the supply of dollars is growing 12x faster than the supply of gold.

And I suspect many other countries are increasing their fiat money supplies at even faster rates.

All that to say, gold’s value increases as it becomes more scare relative to fiat currencies, which are being printed to infinity with no plans of stopping in sight.

Adding to the money printing mess is the problem of low interest rates around the world.

In many countries, interest rates are already below zero. That means, by loaning out your money, you’re literally signing up for a contract that’s guaranteed to lose money.

For example, a $1,000 bond with a -1% interest rate will pay the buyer of that bond $990 at the end of the loan term.

One of the biggest drawbacks of gold over the years has been the fact that it doesn’t pay any interest.

But 0% interest is certainly better than negative percent anything…

In the United States, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for central bankers to push interest rates below zero.

The discount rate is currently at 0-0.25% after the Fed immediately dropped it to zero earlier this year in the wake of COVID-19. And there has been considerable talk around whether it should go negative like its counterparts in Europe and Japan.

If continued money printing doesn’t continue to have the same positive effect on financial markets as it has over the last five months, the U.S. Fed would more or less be forced to drop rates into negative territory.

In all, I put the probability of this happening around 50%.

But if and when it does happen, that could easily jolt gold to $3,000 per ounce in short order.

The bottom line is… If you believe there is a reasonable probability of continued money printing around the world combined with the lowering of interest rates by central bankers, there are two ways to play the move in gold.

First, you could buy physical gold. But that presents storage problems, counterfeit problems, and a whole host of others.

Second, you could buy these top gold mining stocks…

The Large-Cap Gold Miner: Newmont Corp.

Founded in 1921, Newmont Corporation is one of America’s oldest gold mining companies still operating today.

finviz dynamic chart for  NEM

The company has ownership of gold mines in Colorado, Nevada, Ontario, Quebec, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Ghana, Argentina, Peru, and Suriname.

And with a $53 billion market cap, it’s the world's largest gold producer.

In fiscal 2019, the company produced 6.3 million attributable ounces of gold and 624 million attributable “gold equivalent” ounces from the sale of byproducts. And its all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the year was $966 per ounce.

On a long-term basis, the company expects to produce 6.2 to 6.7 million ounces of annual gold production while driving AISC down to $800 per $900 per ounce.

And with the price of one gold ounce currently at $1,975, that leaves Newmont with a lot of room for fat margins.

Newmont has approximately 24,000 employees and contractors worldwide, and is the only gold company in the S&P 500.

Speaking of the S&P 500, NEM stock has outperformed the index by a wide margin so far this year.

NEM is up 56%, compared to just 8.4% for the S&P.

Since it’s virtually inevitable that we see additional stimulus pumped into financial markets by central banks around the world printing more fiat currencies, I think this trend has a high probability of continuing throughout the rest of 2020 and next year

The Mid-Sized Gold Miner: Kinross Gold Corp.

Founded in 1993, Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) is a Toronto-based senior gold producer that operates eight active mines in the United States, Brazil, Ghana, Mauritania, and Russia.

finviz dynamic chart for  KGC

In 2019, the company produced roughly 2.5 million gold equivalent ounces (worth $4.8 billion today). That’s up from 2.4 million in 2018 and I expect another increase in 2020.

Let’s say the company mines 2.6 million ounces in 2020 and the price of gold skyrockets to $3,000 per ounce, as we expect. That would be worth $7.8 billion – an increase of 62.5% in year-over-year revenue.

Historically, Kinross used acquisitions to fuel expansion into new regions and production growth.

In December 2017 for example, Kinross acquired mineral rights to a 709-acre territory in Fairbanks, Alaska that mining experts believe contains 2.1 million ounces of gold.  

In fiscal 2018, the company lost $23.6 million. But in 2019, as gold prices started rising again, Kinross turned a $718.6 million profit.

As long as gold continues its positive price momentum, Kinross’ profits should easily double in fiscal 2020.

And KGC stock should rise along with it.

Currently, Kinross is trading for $8.90 per share. But I think it could easily reach $20 in the next 12 months. That represents a potential gain of 125%.

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Not only is the announcement coming…

But gold is approaching record prices… and as you'll see, a well-known billionaire who made $4 billion shorting the housing market in 2008 just went all-in on this tiny gold stock that's poised to become the biggest in America.

Click here for the full story.

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